Ethiopia is likely to face increased regional pressure following a recent meeting between Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia, signaling the formation of a strategic alliance that could have significant implications for the Horn of Africa. The summit, held in Asmara, Eritrea’s capital, brought together the leaders of the three countries, all of which have strained relationships with Ethiopia. The new axis is expected to complicate Ethiopia’s diplomatic and economic situation, especially in light of ongoing disputes with these neighboring nations.
Formation of the Axis
The meeting between Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has raised concerns in Addis Ababa, as the trio discussed regional cooperation and strengthening ties between their countries. The Eritrean government’s closing statement emphasized respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, a thinly veiled reference to Ethiopia’s aspirations for access to a Red Sea port. While Ethiopia was not explicitly mentioned, the timing and nature of the meeting suggest a unified front against Addis Ababa.
Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia have long-standing disputes with Ethiopia, making this alliance a significant geopolitical development. Eritrea and Ethiopia were involved in a bloody border war that ended in 2000, and while a peace agreement was signed in 2018, relations have since deteriorated. Egypt, on the other hand, has been locked in a decade-long dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River, which Cairo views as a threat to its water security.
Somalia, traditionally an ally of Ethiopia in the fight against militant group al-Shabab, has also seen its relations with Addis Ababa sour recently due to Ethiopia’s agreements with Somaliland, a self-declared republic that Somalia considers part of its territory. This complex web of disputes makes Ethiopia likely to experience a hard time after Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia form this axis.
Rising Tensions and Strategic Interests
The growing partnership between these countries has fueled speculation that this axis is aimed at increasing pressure on Ethiopia, particularly its capital, Addis Ababa. Hassan Khannenje, director of the Horn International Institute for Strategic Studies, described the alliance as an attempt to “bring the hate together” against Ethiopia. He pointed out that the coordination between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia is a clear signal to Addis Ababa that the regional dynamics are shifting.
The summit also highlighted Egypt’s increasing involvement in Somalia, where Egyptian military equipment and supplies have been delivered in recent months. Egypt’s strategic interest in Somalia and Eritrea likely centers on countering Ethiopia’s influence in the region, especially regarding the control of Nile waters. For over a decade, Egypt has been alarmed by Ethiopia’s construction of the GERD, which could significantly reduce the flow of the Nile River, upon which Egypt is heavily dependent for its water supply.
Ethiopia’s Port Aspirations and Regional Rivalries
One of Ethiopia’s pressing strategic goals is gaining access to a seaport, which would improve its economic and geopolitical standing. Landlocked since the secession of Eritrea in 1993, Ethiopia has been pursuing various avenues to secure maritime access, including potential agreements with Djibouti, Sudan, and Somaliland. However, its ambitions have alarmed Eritrea and Somalia, both of whom have territorial and strategic interests in the Red Sea region. This adds another layer of complexity to the emerging alliance between these nations.
Asmara’s statement about “respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity” during the summit could be interpreted as a warning to Ethiopia, underscoring the tensions over Ethiopia’s pursuit of a port deal. Ethiopia likely to experience a hard time after Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia form this axis reflects how regional politics is becoming more adversarial toward Addis Ababa.
A Growing Rift
The growing alliance is a significant blow to Ethiopia’s regional standing. Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea had improved under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who signed a peace deal with President Afwerki in 2018, an achievement that earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize. However, since the end of the Tigray conflict in northern Ethiopia, relations between the two countries have cooled, with Eritrea appearing less enthusiastic about the accord that ended the two-year civil war. Eritrea had been a key ally of Ethiopia during the Tigray war but has distanced itself since the fighting ceased in 2022.
Meanwhile, Somalia’s rift with Ethiopia worsened following a preliminary deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland earlier this year. Ethiopia agreed to lease a portion of Somaliland’s coastline, a move that angered Somalia, which still claims Somaliland as part of its sovereign territory.
Implications for Ethiopia
Ethiopia’s growing isolation could have serious consequences for its diplomatic and economic stability. With key neighbors now aligning against it, Ethiopia faces potential challenges to its security and economic ambitions. The alliance between Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia may embolden these nations to take more assertive stances against Ethiopia in regional matters, particularly regarding the Nile River dispute and territorial ambitions.
In the coming months, Ethiopia is likely to experience a hard time after Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia form this axis, as the country navigates an increasingly hostile regional landscape. As tensions escalate, the international community will be watching closely to see how Ethiopia manages its relationships with these key neighbors and what steps it takes to protect its interests in the Horn of Africa.
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